I think This Gets It Exactly… Right. Sentence “Guesses” By REAL* White Collar Criminal Lawyers.

[* Which designation excludes the blog author — but not many of his erstwhile commenters. Smile.] We will be just about ten days away from hearing his sentence pronounced, when the “luminous and clear dawn” arrives, tomorrow morning. [Credit: Norman Maclean.]

It seems Dan Mangan and Meg Tirrell are right on point, here — with pull quotes, from actual, experienced white collar criminal defense lawyers (and cogently, ones with no skin at all, in the Shkreli outcome-game):

Matthew Schwartz, a lawyer not affiliated with the Shkreli case, told CNBC, “In Shkreli’s case, if the government is right that the losses are between $9.5 [million] to $25 million, then there will be a 20-level increase to the applicable sentencing guidelines; whereas if Shkreli is right, the loss amount would be zero.”

“A 20-level difference in the sentencing guidelines could easily mean a difference of literally decades in prison,” said Schwartz, who works at the firm Boies Schiller Flexner. “Of course, the guidelines are just that, and the court is not required to adhere to them.”

Schwartz said that as far as he was aware there has been no formal calculation of the guideline range for Shkreli’s sentence that is publicly available, “But if I had to guess, I would say that the advisory Sentencing Guidelines range will be at least 108 to 135 months’ imprisonment, and probably more….”

Sorry Marty. And no, I did not — and will not watch the “American Greed” episode. But feel free to tell us all about it, in comments, one and all.

Look, I don’t wish unearned ill upon the man — but I also think he ought to get it through his head that he has only himself to blame for every bit of this coming “lost decade” — of his life.



15 thoughts on “I think This Gets It Exactly… Right. Sentence “Guesses” By REAL* White Collar Criminal Lawyers.

  1. CagingMartens says:

    Very interesting! I just read up on the Carr Miller Capital case from the third circuit that found a very broad definition of an “investment advisor” for enhancement purposes. The goober mint is sure going balls to the wall trying to squeeze a full 20 years of justice out of Marty…

    Liked by 1 person

      • CagingMartens says:

        His sentence is statutorily capped at 240 months assuming merged convictions. I think the 3B1.1(a) enhancement is *super* shaky, but even without it his guidelines would be at statutory max. The other enhancements are a little less questionable and will make for interesting appeal issues.

        I think anything too much over a decade would be a miscarriage of justice, but if the Sentencing Reform and Corrections act passes, he’d be looking at 48% good time credit and make it out in about a decade even if he gets the full 20 years.

        Liked by 1 person

      • condor says:

        Excellent analysis… and as ever, the law of compensating errors… gets me back to a decade… better to be lucky, than good! (Irish in full effect now…)



  2. R West says:

    As I recall, when the news media interviewed one of the “real” experts when Martin was headed to the bond hearing revocation, the expert gave the wrong prediction (Martin merely receives stern warning from the Judge and she sends him home) and gave the wrong legal test (the test given was for granting bond; not revoking it). The press is now shifting their position from before, which was “he won’t serve much time” – to now, he will serve decades. Cagingmartens post on the 70-87 months is about right, but the Judge will probably tack on a couple of more years for the “threats*,” which she also mentions in her Order today. So, say 6.5 years plus 2, equals 8.5 years, or about 102 months (less time served) … would be a good guess!

    * This is what the experts will tell you .. if you want to put someone away for a long time, make them sound violent.

    Liked by 1 person

    • condor says:

      Whatever happens now, soon enough I’ll be done with the burden of this blog…

      Even so, I do so appreciate the guidance and wisdom of all, here assembled!


      Liked by 1 person

      • R West says:

        One thing that hasn’t been focused on is how the Gov’t. got the case to the E.D. in Brooklyn. If this had been tried in the S.D. (famous for leniency in securities fraud sentences), I would say more like two years. I’m sure he deserved it, but to a certain extent Martin got set up!

        Liked by 1 person

      • R West says:

        Could start a new blog on the missing CDC researcher … could be big pharma or government conspiracy? Routine missing person doesn’t make a lot of sense.

        Liked by 1 person

      • condor says:

        [Confidential note, to Dante Williams: seen, at around 10 am Monday, here. smile.]

        I read he may have been depressed… I am hoping for his safe reappearance… but I suspect whatever happened — was via his own hand.

        Even so, as you and I well-know, American adults “walk away” from their lives every day… never to return, under that ID.

        We shall see… I feel for his family. Not knowing is… unbearable.



      • R West says:

        I would feel a lot better if Special Agents Scully and Mulder were working on this … even if there’s no federal jurisdiction, one would think the local police might ask for federal help. I think that’s one thing fueling the suspicions.

        He may have committed suicide, but I don’t think he would have left the dog. There’s a lot of stories like that … people commit suicide, but they first take steps to protect their pets (or sometimes have killed the pets with themselves). Not too many cases where they just leave them to starve … one would think!

        Liked by 1 person

  3. billythekid9919 says:

    Anyone who has kept up with the posts on Condor’s blog knows more about the case than what was discussed in the “American Greed” episode. But they touched all the bases and covered it pretty well in my opinion. He definitely had reason for not wanting to cooperate. There was zero chance of Martin spin… now that all the B.S. is washed away at trial. His crowing about a “win” on the courthouse steps (‘er sidewalk), makes him look obviously delusional and in denial. In general I give it high marks for getting a lot of detail crammed in.

    Liked by 2 people

  4. CagingMartens says:

    108-135 months would correspond to a 31 point offense. I think Schwartz is adding the 4 point public company CEO enhancement, which can’t apply with the government’s claims of the fraud being completed before the RTRX IPO. I stand by the 70-87 month guideline calculation. But there may be an upward departure, of course!

    Liked by 1 person

    • condor says:

      Okay — sorry to reply so deeply, here — but this IS relevant, and I want to (mostly) bury it… so that not too many ppl make an issue of it. Here is an image of what Mr. Brafman’s 02.27.2018 public filing says is the Probation rec. on levels — it’s a 41. I think we all forgot about “investment advisor” and “obstruction of justice”.

      Namaste — thanks for all the careful work here!

      Liked by 2 people

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